IRMSA Risk Report 2026/27 – UmphakathiVuka
Southern Africa is entering the 2026–2027 period with risk as a defining feature of how we govern, invest and lead, yet the IRMSA Risk Report argues that this moment is also rich with possibility. At the heart of this edition is UmphakathiVuka – Awakening the Forest – a people‑first mindset that positions organisations, sectors, communities and institutions as interconnected trees within a single living ecosystem. The Report shows how governance failures, economic fragility, infrastructure decline, inequality, climate stress, systemic crime, cyber vulnerability, water scarcity and energy insecurity have converged into an interconnected meta‑crisis that shapes every development choice. But it also frames each of the Top 10 Risks as an opportunity pathway, i.e. to rebuild a capable state, unlock inclusive growth, modernise critical infrastructure, invest in climate resilience and digital security, and restore social cohesion through ethical leadership and accountable governance. Through scenarios, sector and regional lenses, and a practical Call to Action grounded in King V and a 5W1H framework, the Report invites leaders to treat risk intelligence as a strategic asset and resilience as a collective national project. The future forest will be shaped less by the shocks we face than by the courage, foresight and collaboration we choose to exercise now.
Building a Resilient Organisation
Sun TZU, in The Art of War writes that:
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
This quotation highlights the importance of understanding our organisations and the environments in which we operate.
Shifting Mindsets: How Mental Models Bridge the Executive–Risk Manager Divide in Quantitative Risk Analysis
This article explores how mental models can empower executives to integrate quantitative risk analysis into strategic decision-making. By translating complex statistical data into relatable concepts, risk professionals bridge the gap between executive intuition and analytical risk management. The use of mental models helps demystify probabilities, foster robust strategic conversations, and strengthen executive understanding of uncertainty and potential impact. Best practices include using tailored narratives, visual aids, executive education, and continuous feedback, all aimed at embedding quantitative risk thinking within board-level strategy. Ultimately, this approach builds a resilient, risk-informed leadership culture that turns uncertainty into opportunity.
WEF Global Risk Report – 2026
The 2026 Global Risks Report warns that an age of intense global competition is eclipsing multilateral cooperation, driving uncertainty and systemic fragility. Geoeconomic confrontation and state-based armed conflict dominate short‑term risks, while economic downturn, debt burdens and asset bubbles intensify concern over financial stability. Societal polarization, fuelled by inequality and mis/disinformation, is eroding trust, weakening social contracts and pressuring democratic institutions. Environmental risks fall down the two‑year agenda but remain the most severe over a 10‑year horizon, as extreme weather, ecosystem degradation and stressed infrastructure threaten long‑term resilience.